Crush Liberalism

Liberalism: Why think when you can “feel”?

Are national polls AND Ohio polls both right?

No way, says Josh Jordan.  Excellent read, so please check it out.  Excerpt:

In Ohio, Republicans tend to outperform their share of the national vote: In the last six presidential elections, only in 2004 has the Republican candidate performed worse in Ohio than he did nationally, and even that was a difference of only 0.3 percentage points. In the other five elections, the GOP candidate outperformed his margin of the national vote by an average of 3.1 percentage points. While it’s clearly possible for Republicans to perform worse in Ohio than nationally, it is very difficult to imagine a scenario where there is more than a point difference between them based on past elections. History would suggest Romney could not be up 2 points nationally while being down 2.1 in Ohio, which would mean that Republicans would be under-performing in Ohio by more than 4 points.

Both of these points suggest that it is more likely that either the national polls or the Ohio polls are wrong, rather than the possibility that both can be right. There is a big reason for this discrepancy: the partisan makeup of the Ohio polls.

As mentioned above, in current Ohio polls, Democrats have a party-ID sample advantage of 6.3 points. In 2008, Democrats had a 5-point turnout advantage in Ohio. That means that while national polls have the turnout advantage down 2.6 points, in Ohio it has actually increased 1.3 points. It is almost impossible to conclude that while the nationwide party-ID advantage of Democrats has dropped since the wave election of 2008, Ohio has actually increased over the last four years.

If that’s not enough, the Ohio polls have actually become more Democratic since the post-DNC polls that gave Obama the significant bounce that led many pundits to declare Romney’s chances in Ohio DOA. Of all Ohio polls from September 7 to September 19, Obama held an average lead of 4.2 points, with a Democratic party-ID advantage of 5.7 points. Today Obama leads by 2.1 points, with a party-ID advantage of 6.3 points. In the last month, while Romney has had surges in polls all over the country, the polling in Ohio has actually found more Democrats even while Obama’s lead was cut in half. …

Um…unlikely, to say the least.  Case in point: a new PPP (the Daily Kooks’) poll shows Oba-Mao with a +4 lead over Romney in OH…with a D+8 sample, even bigger than the big blue wave of 2008 (and +9 bigger than the R+1 that turned out during the red wave of 2010…so a 9% swing ONLY TWO SHORT YEARS AFTER the nation rebuked Obama? Really?).  So with an unrealistic +8 sample advantage over Republicans, the best B.O. can do is to only get HALF of those?

B.O. can’t win without Ohio.  Romney CAN, though it’s hard to imagine that he’d lose Ohio but pick off other “firewall” states needed to offset the difference (WI and either IA, NH, or NV, assuming CO continues its pro-Romney trend).

In the end, the only poll that matters is the one AFTER the votes are in.  But regardless of who wins, it will be a fun exercise to go back and look to see which pollsters were right and wrong, and see if they explain themselves.

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October 29, 2012 - Posted by | Obama, Ohio, polls, Romney

3 Comments »

  1. My thoughts now are polls are meaningless. The actual 2008 proportional break down was different than all previous history. 2010 was the same. Obama is such a divisive person, both bases are on fire. Yes, polls are over sampling Democrats. However pollsters are only polling LAN lines. Most younger voters, African Americans, Latinos and poorer Americans have given up home phones for cell phones only, and they historically vote Democrat. The only thing the polls are telling us is, Ladies and Gentlemen, this is going to be close.

    Comment by Steve | October 29, 2012

  2. Polls are showing it’s gonna be close? Let’s see if history agrees with pre-election polls:
    980 (this one’s for those of you who say – “polls shift over time”)

    Nov 1980, Gallup Pre-Election Poll
    Carter 44%
    Reagan 41%

    Final Results

    Reagan 50.7%
    Carter 41.0%

    Average MOE – 5.85% = the margin of error in every GE poll this year. This really embarrassed the pollsters, so of course, they went ahead and did it again.

    1988

    5/17 – NYT/CBS
    Michael Dukakis 49%
    George Bush 39%

    Final Results
    Bush 53.4%
    Dukakis 45.6%

    Average MOE – 7.9%

    A shift like what occurred in 1988 would make any Democrat the winner or the loser by a healthy margin.

    1992

    June 1992 Time/CNN
    Ross Perot 37%
    George Bush 24%
    Bill Clinton 24%

    Final Results
    Clinton 43.0%
    Bush 37.4%
    Perot 18.9%

    Average MOE – 20.1%.
    retrieved from:

    http://voices.yahoo.com/general-election-polls-history-inaccuracy-869171.html

    Comment by Kevin | October 31, 2012

  3. Bill Cunningham brought up a great point on Hannity today. Ohio voted 46 or 47% John-freaking-McCain in 2008. Forty-seven percent?! Does anyone who goes beyond wishful thinking as their logic honestly BELIEVE that Romney can’t get 2% more than McCain did? McCain was a hold-the-nose vote. Romney has actual momentum. Ohio has about 75% of all county elected officials as republicans, a Republican governor, Republican-dominated legislature and, did I mention that MCCAIN got 47% in Ohio during the super-star craze Obama enjoyed back in 2008? Romney can’t get 2-3% more than McCain did??? Really?
    Rather than look at surveys, lets look at what is actually going on in OH.
    He had a great point…..

    Comment by Kevin | November 2, 2012


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