Crush Liberalism

Liberalism: Why think when you can “feel”?

Are national polls AND Ohio polls both right?

No way, says Josh Jordan.  Excellent read, so please check it out.  Excerpt:

In Ohio, Republicans tend to outperform their share of the national vote: In the last six presidential elections, only in 2004 has the Republican candidate performed worse in Ohio than he did nationally, and even that was a difference of only 0.3 percentage points. In the other five elections, the GOP candidate outperformed his margin of the national vote by an average of 3.1 percentage points. While it’s clearly possible for Republicans to perform worse in Ohio than nationally, it is very difficult to imagine a scenario where there is more than a point difference between them based on past elections. History would suggest Romney could not be up 2 points nationally while being down 2.1 in Ohio, which would mean that Republicans would be under-performing in Ohio by more than 4 points.

Both of these points suggest that it is more likely that either the national polls or the Ohio polls are wrong, rather than the possibility that both can be right. There is a big reason for this discrepancy: the partisan makeup of the Ohio polls.

As mentioned above, in current Ohio polls, Democrats have a party-ID sample advantage of 6.3 points. In 2008, Democrats had a 5-point turnout advantage in Ohio. That means that while national polls have the turnout advantage down 2.6 points, in Ohio it has actually increased 1.3 points. It is almost impossible to conclude that while the nationwide party-ID advantage of Democrats has dropped since the wave election of 2008, Ohio has actually increased over the last four years.

If that’s not enough, the Ohio polls have actually become more Democratic since the post-DNC polls that gave Obama the significant bounce that led many pundits to declare Romney’s chances in Ohio DOA. Of all Ohio polls from September 7 to September 19, Obama held an average lead of 4.2 points, with a Democratic party-ID advantage of 5.7 points. Today Obama leads by 2.1 points, with a party-ID advantage of 6.3 points. In the last month, while Romney has had surges in polls all over the country, the polling in Ohio has actually found more Democrats even while Obama’s lead was cut in half. …

Um…unlikely, to say the least.  Case in point: a new PPP (the Daily Kooks’) poll shows Oba-Mao with a +4 lead over Romney in OH…with a D+8 sample, even bigger than the big blue wave of 2008 (and +9 bigger than the R+1 that turned out during the red wave of 2010…so a 9% swing ONLY TWO SHORT YEARS AFTER the nation rebuked Obama? Really?).  So with an unrealistic +8 sample advantage over Republicans, the best B.O. can do is to only get HALF of those?

B.O. can’t win without Ohio.  Romney CAN, though it’s hard to imagine that he’d lose Ohio but pick off other “firewall” states needed to offset the difference (WI and either IA, NH, or NV, assuming CO continues its pro-Romney trend).

In the end, the only poll that matters is the one AFTER the votes are in.  But regardless of who wins, it will be a fun exercise to go back and look to see which pollsters were right and wrong, and see if they explain themselves.

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October 29, 2012 Posted by | Obama, Ohio, polls, Romney | 3 Comments

Liberal Iowa fishwrap endorses Romney, first GOP endorsement since 1972

The Des Moines Register hasn’t endorsed a Republican for president since Nixon defeated George “One State” McGovern in 1972.  It’s taken 40 years, but even this fishwrap recognizes that stupid is as stupid does and a vote for B.O. is stupid.  Excerpt:

The former governor and business executive has a strong record of achievement in both the private and the public sectors. He was an accomplished governor in a liberal state. He founded and ran a successful business that turned around failing companies. He successfully managed the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.

Romney has made rebuilding the economy his No. 1 campaign priority — and rightly so.

The president’s best efforts to resuscitate the stumbling economy have fallen short. Nothing indicates it would change with a second term in the White House. …

Funny, though, that one of B.O.’s campaign spokesboobs doesn’t think it’s “reality-based“:

Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter on Sunday dismissed the Des Moines Register endorsement of GOP candidate Mitt Romney, saying it was not “based at all in reality.”

“They endorsed Mitt Romney in the primary, so this was not much of a surprise,” said Cutter on ABC’s “This Week” of the influential swing-state paper’s backing for President Obama’s challenger.

“It was a little surprising to read that editorial, because it didn’t seem to be based at all in reality, not just in the president’s record, but in Mitt Romney’s record,” Cutter added. “It says that he’d reach across the aisle, which he’d do the exact opposite. It’s the exact opposite of what he did in Massachusetts.”

Um…sure, Snookums.

I guess they were more “reality-based” when the fishwrap endorsed her boss in 2008, huh?  Funny, that.  Anywho, looks like every major newspaper in that swing state has endorsed Romney.  And while I don’t put much stock in a newspaper endorsement’s ability to persuade would-be voters, I do find it extraordinarily telling that more fishwraps than I ever suspected would jump off the Obama Titanic.

October 29, 2012 Posted by | media bias, Obama, Romney | Leave a comment

Parody alert, “GM: The Deadbeat of America” ad

LOL…instead of “Like A Rock”, it’s “Now We’re Soft”!  😆

October 25, 2012 Posted by | big government, Detroit, humor | 2 Comments

President talking about the big issues of the day: Big Bird, binders, bayonets

This is how you win an election?

October 25, 2012 Posted by | Obama, Romney | 4 Comments

Romney hits Obama on “Apology Tour”

About. Friggin’. Time.

October 23, 2012 Posted by | Obama, political correctness, Romney, shameful | 3 Comments

Chris Christie lays the smackdown on Obama in Virginia campaign rally

I luv me sum Christie!  😆

“When he says that, it’s shows even more about his arrogance. See because what he’s saying is ‘It’s not my fault.’ See it’s not my responsibility, it’s not my fault. It’s George Bush’s fault. It’s Dick Cheney’s fault. It’s Big Oil’s fault. It’s the coal companies’ fault. It’s the gas companies’ fault. It’s the fault of the Republicans in Congress… For God’s sake it’s anybody’s fault but mine, that’s what he’s saying to us, he says ‘Please, just give me another four years, I’ll figure it out.’ You know Mr. President, I’m tired of waiting for you figure it out.”

Oh, there’s more…it’s only 3:55 long.  Do yourself a favor and watch it!

October 23, 2012 Posted by | Chris Christie, Obama | 1 Comment

Quote of the day, “Romney’s acceptability” edition

Nice summary by Ace of how the debates have altered the race:

Obama had successfully used ads and media allies to paint Romney has a heartless vampire, a soulless robot, a bloodthirsty warmonger.

The story of the debates has been Romney using completely free media to undo all that Narrative, and all that money spent.

I think that Obama was only up because he had gone negative on Romney so hard, as part of the “Kill Romney” strategy they announced 8, 9 months ago.

People do not like the way things are. They do not like the economy and are sick of Obama’s excuses.

So Obama poured hundreds of millions of dollars into ads to paint Romney as unnacceptable.

Well, in four debates (including Ryan), the Romney-Ryan team as painted themselves as perfectly acceptable, even appealing.

That means that the election returns to… the economy people don’t like, and the endless excuses people are sick to death of hearing.

Indeed.

October 23, 2012 Posted by | economic ignorance, Obama, Romney | 1 Comment

Timeline of Obama/Libya cover-up

Wait…did I say “cover-up”?  That’s such a harsh term and an inflammatory charge, no?  Yes…but you tell me.

October 10, 2012 Posted by | corruption, Libya, Obama | 2 Comments

Gore: Obama sucked in first debate because of Denver’s high altitude, or something

The Internet’s inventor has a theory as to what cost his boy the first debate (video at link):

AL GORE: I’m going to say something controversial here. Uh, Obama arrived in Denver at 2 p.m. today, just a few hours before the debate started. Romney did his debate prep, in Denver. When you go to 5,000 feet, and you only have a few hours to adjust, uh — I don’t know, maybe…

Um, no, it’s not controversial…just supremely stupid. Moron.

Exit question: Anyone other than me surprised that the Goreacle didn’t blame it on global “warming”?

October 4, 2012 Posted by | Gore, Obama, Romney | 4 Comments

First Romney-Obama debate postmortem

I bet you think I’m gonna declare Romney the winner of the first debate, being the ideological hack that I am.  Well…you’d be right, of course. 😆

But it’s not just ME who thinks this.  In addition to CNN’s poll showing 67% of respondents thought Romney was the clear winner, and CBS’ poll showing more than twice as many people though Romney won as Obama, this page will give you a great illustration as to how the left saw it.  Even James Carville can’t help but call it straight, for once.  Dude, when you’ve got Bill Maher, Queen Andrew Sullivan, Mark Halperin, Peter Beinart, Juan Williams, and even Tingles Matthews and other MSDNC talking heads (speaking to both of their viewers) all in despair…well, it’s a good night for the good guys!  🙂

Exit question: Will “objective, neutral journalist” George Snuffalupagus (or whatever the h3ll his name is) continue his trend of ignoring reality and call this one for B.O., too?

October 4, 2012 Posted by | media bias, Obama, Romney | 8 Comments

Quote of the day, “An assessment of Obama’s first debate performance” edition

Gotta love Dennis Miller!  ROFL!  😆

President Obama had better hope that a kicked ass is covered under ObamaCare — as comedian Dennis Miller wryly observed.

October 4, 2012 Posted by | humor, Obama, quote of the day, Romney | 2 Comments

Biden makes the case for electing Romney

Heh.

October 3, 2012 Posted by | Biden, economic ignorance, Obama, Paul Ryan, Romney | 2 Comments

SNL spoofs Obama’s absurd “things are getting better” mantra

Hi-freakin’-larious!

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/barack-obama-rally-cold-open/1418895/

October 1, 2012 Posted by | humor, Obama | 1 Comment